By Mark Shannon O'Neill / R.O.I. Media Solutions
Same numbers: commercial minutes off +/- 10%. Radio crows while TV "frets."
NOTE: Radio needs to take control of this message.
Fascinating! The Television industry is "fretting." The WSJ is suggesting that when the new commercial ratings are released that it "might be a good day to out of the office." Seems that the Nielsen data that is about to be unveiled suggests that ad ratings are showing a "noticeable decline, perhaps as much as 5% to 10%." From today's Wall Street Journal:
For many television executives, particularly at cable channels that carry a lot of commercials, Nov. 18 might be a good day to be out of the office.
That is the day Nielsen Media Research is scheduled to release, for the first time, formal ratings for commercial breaks.
The ratings will show advertisers how many people watch their ads, as opposed to the programs that carry them. As the date approaches, nervousness is increasing in the TV industry as executives ponder what the data might show about their particular networks.
The industry expects Nielsen's data to show a noticeable ratings decline, perhaps as much as 5% to 10%, for ad breaks compared with viewership for the accompanying program. At the same time, a consensus is also emerging that viewing drops will be greatest among certain cable channels that carry more commercials than their rivals, media buyers say. [ MORE ]
On the other hand, the Arbitron/Coleman study released at the NAB is crowing about the fact that during commercial breaks on radio that are longer than three minutes, the audience drops to about 87.7% for a drop of 12.3%.
Of course, it's all a matter of perspective. The Wall Street Journal had to run an article in its own pages [WSJ May 2, 2005] that included:
The newspaper industry, already suffering from circulation problems, could be looking at its worst numbers in more than a decade.
Others say newspapers are simply facing the familiar fate of TV and magazines, which have also lost audience in the past 20 years and have tried to adapt by focusing more on demographic groups. "Mass media in general has just become a little bit less mass," says Jason E. Klein, president of the National Newspaper Network LP, a sales arm of the industry.
Daily circulation of American newspapers peaked in 1984 and had fallen nearly 13% to 55.2 million copies in 2003, according to the Newspaper Association of America. At the same time, advertising revenue -- adjusted for inflation -- has barely budged. In 1985, newspaper advertising, adjusted for inflation, was $43.04 billion, not much less than the $44.94 billion reported in 2003. That's just 4.4% real growth over 18 years. During that same period, the gross domestic product, measured in current dollars, grew 161%. [ MORE ]
The "numbers," good or bad, can always be used against you. TV and Cable are not helping themselves by fighting about how this data should be released. The data has always been available through the Nielsen software as an analysis run. The data is not a surprise to anyone - anyone who has been paying attention anyway. Besides, it's intuitive, especially to anyone who watches TV with a clicker in their hand.
Radio should learn from the experience. Rather than fighting about the relative decline in ratings with the PPM, it should begin preparing its presentation about the size and stability of radio's audience compared to other media. Especially Television and newspapers.
MSO
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